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Sixty-One Percent of Occupations Projected to Lose Jobs Over the Next Five Years are Middle-Wage, According to CareerBuilder and Emsi Research
- Study Highlights Top Occupations Gaining and Losing Jobs in High-, Middle- and Low-Wage Categories
PR Newswire
CHICAGO

CHICAGO, Aug. 5, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. economy is expected to add 7,232,517 jobs over the next five years — a 5 percent increase — but a new study from CareerBuilder and Emsi shows that workers in middle-wage jobs may not find as many opportunities.

High-wage and low-wage occupations are each projected to grow 5 percent from 2016 to 2021, but middle-wage jobs are only estimated to grow 3 percent. At the same time, 61 percent of the 173 occupations expected to lose jobs over the next five years are in the middle-wage category.

"The U.S. is facing a sustained trend of declining middle-wage employment that has serious implications not only for workers, but for the economy overall," said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder and co-author of The Talent Equation. "If we can't find a way to re-skill and up-skill workers at scale, middle-wage workers will become increasingly susceptible to unemployment or will have to move into lower-paying roles that may not support them and their families. This can have a negative ripple effect on consumer spend, housing, investing and other key financial indicators."

Occupations Adding and Losing Jobs by Wage Category
For the purpose of this study, CareerBuilder and Emsi defined low-wage jobs as those that pay $13.83 per hour and below; middle-wage jobs earn $13.84 - $21.13 per hour; and high-wage occupations make $21.14 per hour and higher. ¹

The following is a list of occupations that rank among the top for projected growth or declines in employment for each wage category from 2016 to 2021. Each of the growing occupations listed are those adding at least 50,000 jobs over the next five years.

Growing High-Wage Occupations

Occupation

2016 Jobs

2021 Jobs

Job Added 2016 - 2021

2016 - 2021  % Change

Software Developers, Applications

772,195

861,122

88,927

12%

Computer Systems Analysts

600,001

671,245

71,244

12%

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists

532,336

590,363

58,027

11%

Management Analysts

798,484

870,713

72,229

9%

Registered Nurses

2,870,340

3,116,957

246,617

9%

Declining High-Wage Occupations

Occupation

2016 Jobs

2021 Jobs

Job Added 2016 - 2021

2016 - 2021  % Change

Postal Service Mail Carriers

303,325

279,023

(24,302)

(8%)

Reporters and Correspondents

47,501

44,063

(3,438)

(7%)

Construction Managers

368,245

350,774

(17,471)

(5%)

Real Estate Sales Agents

415,006

400,417

(14,589)

(4%)

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

622,435

617,020

(5,415)

(1%)

Growing Middle-Wage Occupations

Occupation

2016 Jobs

2021 Jobs

Job Added 2016 - 2021

2016 - 2021  % Change

Medical Assistants

631,435

701,056

69,621

11%

Customer Service Representatives

2,674,925

2,846,989

172,064

6%

Maintenance and Repair Workers

1,466,944

1,535,161

68,217

5%

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

1,926,886

2,009,133

82,247

4%

Office Clerks

3,365,039

3,489,518

124,479

4%

Declining Middle-Wage Occupations

Occupation

2016 Jobs

2021 Jobs

Job Added 2016 - 2021

2016 - 2021  % Change

Printing Press Operators

174,311

159,083

(15,228)

(9%)

Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers

494,879

458,732

(36,147)

(7%)

Travel Agents

77,683

72,789

(4,894)

(6%)

Carpenters

1,053,273

1,031,359

(21,914)

(2%)

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

1,780,151

1,752,270

(27,881)

(2%)

Growing Low-Wage Occupations

Occupation

2016 Jobs

2021 Jobs

Job Added 2016 - 2021

2016 - 2021  % Change

Home Health Aides

992,134

1,179,527

187,393

19%

Cooks, Restaurant

1,219,433

1,333,041

113,608

9%

Nursing Assistants

1,520,614

1,655,662

135,048

9%

Security Guards

1,185,116

1,260,953

75,837

6%

Janitors and Cleaners

2,632,801

2,792,345

159,544

6%

Declining Low-Wage Occupations

Occupation

2016 Jobs

2021 Jobs

Job Added 2016 - 2021

2016 - 2021  % Change

Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors

78,078

64,271

(13,807)

(18%)

Sewing Machine Operators

157,931

135,575

(22,356)

(14%)

Floral Designers

53,876

48,391

(5,485)

(10%)

Cooks, Fast Food

545,746

530,839

(14,907)

(3%)

Tellers

501,879

490,202

(11,677)

(2%)

1 Definition from the National Employment Law Project

About Emsi
Emsi (Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.) is a CareerBuilder company that provides industry-leading employment data and economic analysis via web tools and custom reports. Emsi turns vast amounts of labor market data into easy-to-use information that helps organizations understand the connection between economies, people, and work, and ultimately build a better workforce. Emsi's software services - Analyst and Career Coach - are used by thousands of professionals in higher education, workforce and economic development, and the private sector. Emsi has also produced more than 1,400 comprehensive impact analyses for colleges and universities in the U.S. and internationally. For more information, visit www.economicmodeling.com.

About CareerBuilder®
As the global leader in human capital solutions, CareerBuilder specializes in cutting-edge HR software as a service to help companies with every step of the recruitment process from acquire to hire. CareerBuilder works with top employers across industries, providing job distribution, sourcing, workflow, CRM, data and analytics in one pre-hire platform. It also operates leading job sites around the world. Owned by TEGNA Inc. (NYSE:TGNA), Tribune Media (NYSE:TRCO) and The McClatchy Company (NYSE:MNI), CareerBuilder and its subsidiaries operate in the United States, Europe, South America, Canada and Asia. For more information, visit www.careerbuilder.com.

Media Contact
Rob Zaldivar
312.698.1042
rob.zaldivar@careerbuilder.com
http://www.twitter.com/CareerBuilderPR

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SOURCE CareerBuilder