CHICAGO, Aug. 5, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. economy is expected to add 7,232,517 jobs over the next five years — a 5 percent increase — but a new study from CareerBuilder and Emsi shows that workers in middle-wage jobs may not find as many opportunities.
High-wage and low-wage occupations are each projected to grow 5 percent from 2016 to 2021, but middle-wage jobs are only estimated to grow 3 percent. At the same time, 61 percent of the 173 occupations expected to lose jobs over the next five years are in the middle-wage category.
"The U.S. is facing a sustained trend of declining middle-wage employment that has serious implications not only for workers, but for the economy overall," said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder and co-author of The Talent Equation. "If we can't find a way to re-skill and up-skill workers at scale, middle-wage workers will become increasingly susceptible to unemployment or will have to move into lower-paying roles that may not support them and their families. This can have a negative ripple effect on consumer spend, housing, investing and other key financial indicators."
Occupations Adding and Losing Jobs by Wage Category
For the purpose of this study, CareerBuilder and Emsi defined low-wage jobs as those that pay $13.83 per hour and below; middle-wage jobs earn $13.84 - $21.13 per hour; and high-wage occupations make $21.14 per hour and higher. ¹
The following is a list of occupations that rank among the top for projected growth or declines in employment for each wage category from 2016 to 2021. Each of the growing occupations listed are those adding at least 50,000 jobs over the next five years.
Growing High-Wage Occupations
|
Occupation |
2016 Jobs |
2021 Jobs |
Job Added 2016 - 2021 |
2016 - 2021 % Change |
|
Software Developers, Applications |
772,195 |
861,122 |
88,927 |
12% |
|
Computer Systems Analysts |
600,001 |
671,245 |
71,244 |
12% |
|
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists |
532,336 |
590,363 |
58,027 |
11% |
|
Management Analysts |
798,484 |
870,713 |
72,229 |
9% |
|
Registered Nurses |
2,870,340 |
3,116,957 |
246,617 |
9% |
Declining High-Wage Occupations
|
Occupation |
2016 Jobs |
2021 Jobs |
Job Added 2016 - 2021 |
2016 - 2021 % Change |
|
Postal Service Mail Carriers |
303,325 |
279,023 |
(24,302) |
(8%) |
|
Reporters and Correspondents |
47,501 |
44,063 |
(3,438) |
(7%) |
|
Construction Managers |
368,245 |
350,774 |
(17,471) |
(5%) |
|
Real Estate Sales Agents |
415,006 |
400,417 |
(14,589) |
(4%) |
|
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers |
622,435 |
617,020 |
(5,415) |
(1%) |
Growing Middle-Wage Occupations
|
Occupation |
2016 Jobs |
2021 Jobs |
Job Added 2016 - 2021 |
2016 - 2021 % Change |
|
Medical Assistants |
631,435 |
701,056 |
69,621 |
11% |
|
Customer Service Representatives |
2,674,925 |
2,846,989 |
172,064 |
6% |
|
Maintenance and Repair Workers |
1,466,944 |
1,535,161 |
68,217 |
5% |
|
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers |
1,926,886 |
2,009,133 |
82,247 |
4% |
|
Office Clerks |
3,365,039 |
3,489,518 |
124,479 |
4% |
Declining Middle-Wage Occupations
|
Occupation |
2016 Jobs |
2021 Jobs |
Job Added 2016 - 2021 |
2016 - 2021 % Change |
|
Printing Press Operators |
174,311 |
159,083 |
(15,228) |
(9%) |
|
Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers |
494,879 |
458,732 |
(36,147) |
(7%) |
|
Travel Agents |
77,683 |
72,789 |
(4,894) |
(6%) |
|
Carpenters |
1,053,273 |
1,031,359 |
(21,914) |
(2%) |
|
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks |
1,780,151 |
1,752,270 |
(27,881) |
(2%) |
Growing Low-Wage Occupations
|
Occupation |
2016 Jobs |
2021 Jobs |
Job Added 2016 - 2021 |
2016 - 2021 % Change |
|
Home Health Aides |
992,134 |
1,179,527 |
187,393 |
19% |
|
Cooks, Restaurant |
1,219,433 |
1,333,041 |
113,608 |
9% |
|
Nursing Assistants |
1,520,614 |
1,655,662 |
135,048 |
9% |
|
Security Guards |
1,185,116 |
1,260,953 |
75,837 |
6% |
|
Janitors and Cleaners |
2,632,801 |
2,792,345 |
159,544 |
6% |
Declining Low-Wage Occupations
|
Occupation |
2016 Jobs |
2021 Jobs |
Job Added 2016 - 2021 |
2016 - 2021 % Change |
|
Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors |
78,078 |
64,271 |
(13,807) |
(18%) |
|
Sewing Machine Operators |
157,931 |
135,575 |
(22,356) |
(14%) |
|
Floral Designers |
53,876 |
48,391 |
(5,485) |
(10%) |
|
Cooks, Fast Food |
545,746 |
530,839 |
(14,907) |
(3%) |
|
Tellers |
501,879 |
490,202 |
(11,677) |
(2%) |
1 Definition from the National Employment Law Project
About Emsi
Emsi (Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.) is a CareerBuilder company that provides industry-leading employment data and economic analysis via web tools and custom reports. Emsi turns vast amounts of labor market data into easy-to-use information that helps organizations understand the connection between economies, people, and work, and ultimately build a better workforce. Emsi's software services - Analyst and Career Coach - are used by thousands of professionals in higher education, workforce and economic development, and the private sector. Emsi has also produced more than 1,400 comprehensive impact analyses for colleges and universities in the U.S. and internationally. For more information, visit www.economicmodeling.com.
About CareerBuilder®
As the global leader in human capital solutions, CareerBuilder specializes in cutting-edge HR software as a service to help companies with every step of the recruitment process from acquire to hire. CareerBuilder works with top employers across industries, providing job distribution, sourcing, workflow, CRM, data and analytics in one pre-hire platform. It also operates leading job sites around the world. Owned by TEGNA Inc. (NYSE:TGNA), Tribune Media (NYSE:TRCO) and The McClatchy Company (NYSE:MNI), CareerBuilder and its subsidiaries operate in the United States, Europe, South America, Canada and Asia. For more information, visit www.careerbuilder.com.
Media Contact
Rob Zaldivar
312.698.1042
rob.zaldivar@careerbuilder.com
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SOURCE CareerBuilder
